Macroeconomic environment in 2026

What will our economic environment be like in 2026? Simply put, it can be summarized in four words: change, stability, innovation, and people.
The so-called "change" refers to the fact that current international relations are still in a volatile and high-pressure environment. We need to pay attention to our own economic trends and cannot ignore the economic changes in various global regions. Unlike the past decade, where tensions were localized, now there are variables in multiple geopolitical regions, whether it's Eurasia, South America, North Africa, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, or North America, which is relatively stable but its market economy is becoming increasingly rigid. The regions with more opportunities should be Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and East Africa.
The second keyword, "stability", refers to the domestic market, where the trend will remain positive on a stable foundation. It can be anticipated that we will have more proactive and positive fiscal policies. At the national level, spending will continue, and it will be spent wisely. We have already reached a peak in infrastructure development, so fiscal policy will be more geared towards supporting the economy. Unlike before, where funds were channeled to the market through banks, more funds will be channeled through the primary market in the coming days, with the aim of promoting investment to stabilize and recover. Furthermore, it can be predicted that tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may be used more flexibly this year to maintain ample market liquidity. For small and medium-sized technology-based enterprises, spring has arrived.
The third keyword, "Chuang" (innovation), addresses market dynamics. Whether it's industrial upgrading, high-quality development, or new productive forces, they are all driven by innovation. The leading sectors are definitely integrated circuits, new materials, new energy, artificial intelligence, aerospace, and biomedicine. Especially artificial intelligence, 2026 will be a crucial year for it. This year, the application of technological achievements into productivity will emerge in an endless stream. Although it won't be fully realized at once, it will affect the development direction and competitive landscape in the coming years.
The fourth keyword is "people", which serves as the foundation and ultimate goal of our country's economic development. From a macro perspective, we will continue to allocate funds to support and boost consumption, and the national subsidies will persist. Furthermore, industry restrictions in certain sectors will become more market-oriented, which can better unleash consumption potential, such as in the medical and cultural fields. This will enhance economic activity. At the same time, we will address livelihood issues such as pension and housing, and adjust through taxation, social security, transfer payments, and other means to implement plans to increase residents' income. At the macro-consumption market level, growth opportunities can be found in dimensions such as improving consumption quality, cultural presentation, and meeting personalized needs.
Overall, the economic environment in 2026 is positive and optimistic. Of course, we cannot compare the present with 10 or 20 years ago. Each economic cycle has its own unique trajectory. In the new year, we need to view it through the lens of the development of this era, grasp the certainty amidst uncertainty, and adopt a longer-term and more holistic perspective to view the market and address challenges. If we examine the present with the inertia of the past, we will miss opportunities and only end up complaining.