Stability: The Long-Term Value Anchor Amid High Uncertainty

The Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms period marked an era of extreme turmoil in China’s imperial history. Within 53 years, power shifted among 5 central plains regimes and 8 ruling clans, with 14 monarchs ascending the throne. The average reign of each ruler lasted merely 3.79 years, shorter than the average financing cycle of domestic primary market startups from Series A to Series B (roughly 4.2 years).

Amid such frequent power reshuffles, the official Feng Dao stood out for his strong counter-cyclical career trajectory. He served under 4 regimes and 10 monarchs, held top ministerial positions for over two decades, and was posthumously titled Prince Ying by the Later Zhou Dynasty, achieving lasting personal value amid chaotic times.

Traditional historical evaluations, shaped by the monarch-loyalty ethical system established since the Song Dynasty, carry obvious biased judgments against Feng Dao’s service across multiple regimes. Ouyang Xiu denounced him as a man devoid of honor in New History of the Five Dynasties, while Sima Guang labeled him an arch treacherous minister in Zizhi Tongjian. Such remarks were essentially yardsticks set by Song scholar-officials to consolidate imperial loyalty ethics under centralized governance, failing to restore the real survival logic and behavioral motives of Feng Dao’s era.

In a zero-sum political landscape where military might decided sovereignty, Feng Dao secured long-standing positions in core decision-making circles and consistently fulfilled public governance duties not through political speculation, but by adhering to long-term strategies rooted in judgment of fundamental social rigid demands.

Feng Dao’s initiative to oversee the woodblock printing of the Nine Classics served as a typical practice of his long-term philosophy. Spanning 22 years, the project covered the full process of standardized collation, woodblock engraving and official publication of core Confucian classics — three years longer than the compilation of Zizhi Tongjian.

During wars that triggered cultural fractures, most ruling regimes prioritized resources for military expansion, pushing public cultural undertakings to the lowest priority. Yet Feng Dao accurately perceived that regardless of regime changes, social operation always relied on unified cultural consensus and governance benchmarks, making classic inheritance an unshakable demand transcending regime lifespans. The 22-year project timeline was long enough to witness the full lifecycle of three startups from angel financing to IPO and eventual delisting. By focusing steady resources on this single grand cause, he finally delivered cross-era public cultural assets.

This historical logic resonates profoundly with today’s business landscape. Technological upgrades and industry trends now evolve at an accelerating pace: from the metaverse to generative AI applications and embodied intelligence, mainstream industrial trends last merely 18 months on average, even shorter than the average regime replacement cycle in the late Tang Dynasty (21 months).

Most market participants prioritize traffic and growth speed, pouring resources into short-term profitable tracks to capture policy and capital dividends. Few pause to reflect: when a new technological cycle or regulatory adjustment arrives, can current investments evolve into reusable long-term assets?

Feng Dao’s choices exemplify a proven paradigm for building definite value amid extreme uncertainty. Instead of tying his personal future to a single monarch or regime, he anchored himself to fundamental social needs. Public undertakings including water conservancy construction, famine relief and cultural heritage never vanish amid power transitions. As long as one retains the capability to meet such demands, irreplaceable core value is guaranteed.

This mindset is not blind allegiance, but counter-consensus decision-making derived from in-depth insight into underlying rules. He stayed away from short-term power struggles and devoted core resources to building enduring capabilities, thus sustaining value across cycles.

Such decision-making logic aligns closely with the core tenets of modern value investment. Long-termism does not mean blind prolonged investment, but forming counter-consensus judgments against market noise based on precise grasp of essential logic. During the 2023–2025 generative AI investment boom, Warren Buffett maintained massive cash reserves worth hundreds of billions of dollars. This was never a sign of ignorance toward technological trends, but adherence to his win-rate-oriented decision framework: he only makes heavy bets when investment targets feature sufficiently long-term certainty and ample margin of safety. The self-restraint to resist short-term temptations has become scarcer than capital itself in this era of information overload and declining signal-to-noise ratio.

The primary market is now undergoing a prominent reverse screening phase. The standard fund duration has been shortened from the common "7+2" model to "5+2". Narrowed IPO exit channels have made DPI (Distribution to Paid-In Capital) a core assessment indicator. The average age of startup founders has dropped to 32, with most lacking experience navigating complete industrial cycles.

Against this backdrop, capabilities in story-telling and financing are overvalued, while core strengths such as product polishing, supply chain development and profit profitability are underestimated, leading to a temporary market phenomenon where inferior players outcompete superior ones.

Nevertheless, in the long run, all valuation bubbles inflated by liquidity premiums will eventually burst. Assets capable of weathering cycles are always those that continuously satisfy fundamental social demands.

The Nine Classics printed under Feng Dao’s supervision remained core textbooks for official and private education for nearly a thousand years. In contrast, apart from professional historians, few people today remember the 14 monarchs who ruled alongside him. Time always favors long-term value creators: it ultimately rewards dedicated builders with profound value accumulation, rather than opportunistic pursuers of rapid short-term growth.

If your current endeavors seem unpopular amid prevailing short-term market preferences — just like Feng Dao who spent over a decade refining fundamental undertakings, those who steadily deepen supply chain layout, or entrepreneurs who refuse to distort business models to cater to financing demands — you are essentially accumulating long-term value through counter-consensus persistence. This is exactly the core strength to tide over future industrial cycles.

The ultimate winners of this era are never opportunists chasing fleeting dividends, but steadfast long-term practitioners who stay focused on core goals amid constant market shifts.

Impetuosity is an inevitable product of group decision-making, while steadfast dedication stands as individuals’ most powerful weapon against industrial cycles. The ultimate scarcity in the business world always lies in the choice to break away from herd consensus and uphold long-term value.