当前国内商业生态的核心特征是存量竞争加剧，全行业增速中枢下移，负增长、出清淘汰已成为细分领域的常态现象。从宏观产业生命周期维度观察，国内企业存续周期呈现持续收窄趋势：当前民营企业平均存续时长仅为3.7年，中小微企业更是缩短至2.5年，显著低于欧美、日本等成熟市场的企业平均寿命水平。这一数据明确印证：过去依托市场增量红利、要素粗放投入的外延式扩张模式，已经完全不适配当前的市场环境。
传统增长模式失效的核心逻辑，在于其底层支撑的三大红利正持续消退：第一，人口红利逐步转向人力成本约束，劳动力要素价格进入长期上行通道，这一趋势自2020年以来持续强化，近期佳能中山生产基地结束24年运营正式关停，正是劳动密集型产业比较优势消退的典型缩影；第二，国内资源环境刚性约束持续收紧，“双碳”目标下高能耗、高排放的粗放生产路径已被政策端明确限制；第三，全球化红利进入收缩期，国际市场竞争格局日趋激烈，叠加部分地缘政治风险抬升，企业跨境布局的长期不确定性显著提升。上述变量共同作用下，单纯依赖低价策略、规模扩张的企业，将不可避免地陷入存量零和博弈的消耗陷阱，即便短期维持运营也难以实现破局。
除外部环境变化外，企业端的认知偏差导致的战略缺位，是更为核心的内部制约因素。当前大量企业管理者将经营重心完全放在短期营收、即时利润等指标上，忽视用户价值创造与长期核心能力构建，经营决策缺乏系统性框架，资源投入分散难以形成协同效应，最终无法构建可持续的核心竞争力。这类企业往往会在短期风口期实现快速起量，但当风口退去后会迅速进入失速状态，其扩张形成的规模将成为缺乏支撑的流沙式资产。以电商领域为例，传统公域流量红利已经见顶，直播电商的脉冲式增长仅维持了三年左右，预计2027年行业增速将进一步收窄甚至进入停滞区间，过往单纯追求GMV规模、忽略盈利模型与用户价值沉淀的企业，将再次面临发展断层的风险。
当前我国经济正处于从要素驱动、投资驱动向创新驱动转型的关键攻坚期，企业若要穿越周期、避免陷入中低速增长陷阱，必须将战略管理作为经营的核心抓手：通过构建科学的战略规划体系，明确长期发展锚点，精准识别产业机会，整合内外部核心资源实现差异化价值创造，完成从“价格竞争”向“价值竞争”的经营模式跃迁。这一转型不仅要求企业完成战略管理体系、运营机制的全面升级，更要求管理者率先完成认知逻辑与决策思维的系统性迭代。
The defining feature of China’s current business landscape is intensifying stock-market competition, with industrial growth rates declining across sectors. Negative growth and industrial consolidation have become commonplace in segmented markets. Viewed through the lens of macro industrial lifecycles, the average lifespan of domestic enterprises continues to shrink. The average survival period of private enterprises stands at merely 3.7 years, while micro, small and medium-sized enterprises drop to 2.5 years — far below the average in mature markets such as Europe, the United States and Japan.
These figures clearly prove that the extensive expansion model of the past, driven by market incremental dividends and factor-driven input, is no longer viable in the current environment.
The fundamental decline of traditional growth models stems from the continuous fading of three foundational dividends:
First, the demographic dividend has faded into rising labor cost pressure, with labor costs on a long-term upward trajectory — a trend accelerated since 2020. The official shutdown of Canon’s Zhongshan manufacturing base after 24 years of operation serves as a typical reflection of weakening comparative advantages for labor-intensive industries.
Second, rigid domestic resource and environmental constraints keep tightening. Under the dual-carbon goals, high-energy-consumption, high-emission extensive production methods are explicitly restricted by policy.
Third, the globalization dividend is contracting. Intensifying international competition, compounded by rising geopolitical risks, has greatly increased long-term uncertainty for cross-border business expansion.
Under these combined shifts, companies relying solely on low pricing and scale expansion are inevitably trapped in a zero-sum stock competition. Even if they maintain short-term operations, lasting breakthroughs remain out of reach.
Beyond external pressures, strategic absence caused by cognitive biases represents an even more critical internal constraint. Many business leaders fixate entirely on short-term revenue and instant profits, neglecting user value creation and long-term core capability building. Lacking systematic decision frameworks, their fragmented resource investment fails to generate synergy, making sustainable competitive advantages impossible to establish.
Such companies often expand rapidly during short-lived industry booms, only to stagnate sharply once the trend fades. The scale they accumulate turns into unsupported, fragile assets. The e‑commerce sector offers a clear example: traditional public-domain traffic dividends have peaked, and the explosive growth of live-stream e-commerce lasted only around three years. Industry growth is projected to further slow or even stagnate by 2027. Enterprises that once chased sheer GMV volume while ignoring profitability and user accumulation will face another developmental breakdown.
China’s economy is now in a critical transition from factor‑led and investment‑led growth toward innovation-driven development. To navigate economic cycles and escape the mid-to-low growth trap, enterprises must place strategic management at the center of operations. By establishing scientific strategic planning, clarifying long-term positioning, identifying industrial opportunities, and integrating internal and external core resources, companies can deliver differentiated value and complete the shift from price competition to value competition.
This transformation requires the comprehensive upgrading of strategic governance and operational mechanisms. Above all, it demands that leaders achieve a systematic upgrade of their cognitive logic and decision-making mindset.